Predicting the Potential of China’s Geothermal Energy in Industrial Development and Carbon Emission Reduction

Abstract

The goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality requires major systemic changes in the energy supply sector. As one of the major non-carbon-based energy sources, geothermal energy is characterized by large reserves, stability, and reliability. This paper summarizes the current situation of geothermal resource endowment and industrial development in China. Based on this, a system dynamics model of geothermal industrialization is established, and the potential of geothermal industrialization and carbon emission reduction in China is predicted. The prediction results show that the growth rate of geothermal heating and cooling areas in the next 40 years will follow a trend of acceleration followed by deceleration. China’s geothermal energy heating and cooling area will reach 11.32–14.68 billion m2 by 2060, an increase of about 9–12 times compared to 2020. The proportion of geothermal heating and cooling area to the total building area in China will reach 13.77–17.85%. The installed capacity of geothermal power generation will reach 14,452.80–20,963.20 MW by 2060 under the scenario with electricity subsidies. The proportion of geothermal energy in China’s primary energy consumption structure will reach 3.67–5.64%. The annual carbon emission reduction potential of the geothermal industry will reach 436–632 million tons, equivalent to 4.41–6.39% of China’s carbon emissions in 2020. The results of this study can provide a reference for the healthy and high-quality development of China’s geothermal industry and help to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.