Abstract
The impact of climate change and human activities on endangered plants has been a serious concern in forest ecology. Some Carpinus plants have become extinct. Thus, we need to pay more attention to the Carpinus plants that are not yet extinct but are endangered. Here, we employed the species distribution model (SDM) considering different climate change scenarios and human footprint to test the potential habitat changes of three Carpinus species (C. oblongifolia, C. tientaiensis, and C. purpurinervis) in the future. Our results showed that the mean diurnal range of temperature (MDRT), isothermality, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and human footprint were the most influential factors determining the distribution of C. oblongifolia. Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), MDRT, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important climatic factors affecting C. tientaiensis. The minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most important factor in the distribution of C. purpurinervis. Our results also showed that the three species had different adaptability and habitat change trends under the future climate change scenarios, although they belong to the same genus. The potential habitats of C. oblongifolia would expand in the future, while the potential habitats of C. tientaiensis and C. purpurinervis would decrease for the same period. The predicted changes of these three endangered species on temporal and spatial patterns could provide a theoretical basis for their conservation strategies.
Highlights
The impact of climate change and human activities on endangered plants has been a serious concern in forest ecology
We found that most three contributing factors of C. oblongifolia were all temperature-related factors (MDRT, ISO, and MTWTQ), suggesting that the growth of C. oblongifolia is sensitive to temperature variation
We conducted simulations (AUC > 0.9) using a species distribution model (SDM) to predict the impact of climate change on the potentially suitable habitats for three endangered Carpinus species
Summary
The impact of climate change and human activities on endangered plants has been a serious concern in forest ecology. We employed the species distribution model (SDM) considering different climate change scenarios and human footprint to test the potential habitat changes of three Carpinus species (C. oblongifolia, C. tientaiensis, and C. purpurinervis) in the future. Climatic variables alone may not fully explain the distribution of endangered species patterns [7] Other environmental variables, such as human footprint, play an important role in species distribution modeling (SDM) [8]. The human footprint includes multiple human activities that affect the natural ecosystems directly or indirectly [2,9]. It largely affects the habitat distribution pattern of many endangered species [10,11]. Few studies have considered human activity factors published maps and institutional affiliations
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
