Predicting the potential distribution of wintering Asian Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China: Conservation implications

Abstract

Changes in future climate will alter the geographic distributions of many species. Species distribution models have evolved as a powerful tool for predicting potential species distributions and assessing habitat suitability. The Asian Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii), a long-distance migratory bird, is listed as a globally threatened species and is highly dependent on farmlands during the wintering period. In this study, 78 occurrence points and 15 environmental variables were used to estimate the potential distribution under current conditions and four future climate scenarios by using the maximum entropy model. With current climatic conditions, the highly suitable areas of wintering Asian Great Bustard in China were mainly concentrated on the Northeast Plain, Guanzhong Plain, and North China Plain (33–48° N, 109–127° E). Under future climatic scenarios, the geographic distribution of wintering Asian Great Bustard would remain stable, and the total area of suitable habitats would increase to varying degrees until the end of this century. Our results can be used to define highly suitable areas for conservation management plans for this threatened species.