Predicting the potential distribution of the endemic seabird Pelecanus thagus in the Humboldt Current Large Marine Ecosystem under different climate change scenarios.

Aldo Arriagada,Jaime A Cursach,Jaime Ojeda,Jaime R Rau,Gustavo Bizama,Anderson Becerra

doi:10.7717/peerj.7642

Abstract

BackgroundThe effects of global climate change on species inhabiting marine ecosystems are of growing concern, especially for endemic species that are sensitive due to restricted distribution. One method employed for determining the effects of climate change on the distribution of these organisms is species distribution modeling.MethodsWe generated a model to evaluate the potential geographic distribution and breeding distribution of the Peruvian pelican (Pelecanus thagus). Based on maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), we identified the environmental factors that currently affect its geographic distribution and breeding. Then we predicted its future distribution range under two climate change scenarios: moderate (rcp 2.6) and severe (rcp 8.5).ResultsThe mean daytime temperature range and marine primary productivity explain the current potential distribution and breeding of the pelican. Under the future climate change scenarios, the spatial distribution of the pelican is predicted to slightly change. While the breeding distribution of the pelican can benefit in the moderate scenario, it is predicted to decrease (near −20 %) in the severe scenario.DiscussionThe current potential geographic distribution of the pelican is influenced to a large extent by thermal conditions and primary productivity. Under the moderate scenario, a slight increase in pelican breeding distribution is predicted. This increase in habitable area is explained by the climatic conditions in southern Chile, and those climatic conditions will likely be similar to the current conditions of the central coast of Chile. We predict that the coasts of southern Chile will constitute an important refuge for the conservation of the Peruvian pelican under future climate change scenarios.

Highlights

Climate change is of increasing concern for seabirds because it negatively affects their conservation status and has become the third most important threat after exotic invasive species and incidental capture (Croxall et al, 2012)
AUCevaluation 0.98 indicates that the pelican has a wide geographic distribution and breeding in relation to the area corresponding to the environmental data
The model predicts that the potential geographic distribution of the pelican reaches an approximate surface area of 466,836 km2, latitudinally distributed from southern Ecuador (2◦13 09 S) to southern Chile (46◦59 07 S)

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is of increasing concern for seabirds because it negatively affects their conservation status and has become the third most important threat after exotic invasive species and incidental capture (Croxall et al, 2012). Seabirds face multiple imminent threats (overfishing and incidental death, pollution, introduced species, habitat destruction, and human disturbance) that may seem more urgent than gradual climate change and its associated climate phenomena (Croxall et al, 2012; Quillfeldt & Masello, 2013). Some of these threats are locally restricted, whereas the climate phenomena have the potential to alter an entire region and increase the cumulative pressures that affect many seabirds, especially endemic species (Quillfeldt & Masello, 2013; Jenouvrier et al, 2014). We predict that the coasts of southern Chile will constitute an important refuge for the conservation of the Peruvian pelican under future climate change scenarios

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Conclusion