Abstract
A detailed understanding of species distribution is usually a prerequisite for the rehabilitation and utilization of species in an ecosystem. Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae), which is an endemic species of China, is an ornamental and medicinal plant that features high economic and ecological values. With the decrease of its population in recent decades, it has become a locally endangered species. In present study, we modeled the potential distribution of P. veitchii under current and future conditions, and evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution. The results revealed a highly and moderately suitable habitat for P. veitchii that encompassed ca. 605,114 km2. The central area lies in northwest Sichuan Province. Elevation, temperature seasonality, annual mean precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were identified as the most important factors shaping the distribution of P. veitchii. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6), we predicted an overall expansion of the potential distribution by 2050, followed by a slight contraction in 2070. However, with the scenario featuring intense greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5), the range of suitable habitat should increase with the increasing intensity of global warming. The information that was obtained in the present study can provide background information related to the long-term conservation of this species.
Highlights
Climate serves as one of the major factors that influence the geographical distribution of plant species as well as vegetation pattern and structure [1,2,3]
By applying the maximum entropy principle of Maxent, the maximum possible area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) training value was 0.958, indicating that the Maxent model can accurately predict the locations of potential suitable habitat of P. veitchii
The most suitable habitat areas are mainly scattered in the Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (AP) in Southern Gansu, Aba Tibetan and Qiang APs in Northern Sichuan, Liangshan Yi AP in Southern Sichuan, and in Ganzi
Summary
Climate serves as one of the major factors that influence the geographical distribution of plant species as well as vegetation pattern and structure [1,2,3]. Climate change may lead to an increase in both temperatures and precipitation, which in turn can lead to increased plant growth rates. If the effects of climate change on the future distribution of habitats for individual species can be predicted across the landscape, this would help land managers to mitigate any potential threats to the habitats of those species [6]. This can guide the development of strategies that are related to resource development and use, and might include the preparation of germplasm and its storage [7,8]
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