Abstract
Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.
Highlights
Hylomecon japonica (Thunb.) Prantl et Kundig, a medicinal plant of the Papaveraceae family, is widely distributed in Shaanxi, Liaoning, Chongqing, Shanxi, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Henan in China, along with Japan and Korea [1]
The area under receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) obtained by the accuracy test of the ROC curve analysis method was used in the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model performance evaluation
The results indicated that H. japonica species could be introduced into many undiscovered potential regions, such as Shandong and Guizhou
Summary
Hylomecon japonica (Thunb.) Prantl et Kundig, a medicinal plant of the Papaveraceae family, is widely distributed in Shaanxi, Liaoning, Chongqing, Shanxi, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Henan in China, along with Japan and Korea [1]. It is a kind of perennial herb with irregular serrated leaves, and characterized by bright yellow flowers [2]. Many pharmacological studies, including anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activities, have been reported [7,8,9], the investigation of the medicinal value and mechanism of H. japonica is far from enough. Up to now, little information is available on the guidance to protect, develop and utilize the
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