Predicting the potential distribution in China of Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) under current and future climate conditions

Xuezhen Ge,Yuxiang Zhao,Shuang Qiu,Linghong Chen,Shixiang Zong,Tao Wang,Chao Jiang

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01014-w

Abstract

Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam. In 2014, it attacked forests of Acer trialatum in the Yunnan province of China, creating concern in China’s Forestry Bureau. We used the CLIMEX model to predict and compare the potential distribution for E. fornicates in China under current (1981–2010) and projected climate conditions (2011–2040) using one scenario (RCP8.5) and one global climate model (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. Under both current and future climate conditions, the model predicted E. fornicates to be mainly distributed in the south of China. Comparing distributions under both climate conditions showed that the area of potential distribution was projected to increase (mainly because of an increase in favourable habitat) and shift to the north. Our results help clarify the potential effect of climate change on the range of this forest pest and provide a reference and guide to facilitate its control in China.

Highlights

Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam
The Ecoclimatic Index (EI) value decreases with an increase in the DV0 value, while the EI value increases with an increase in the DV1 value
As for the parameters related to moisture, changes to the value of SM0 (Lower soil moisture threshold) and SM1 (Lower optimal soil moisture) had very similar impacts on EI: as the value of these two parameters increased, EI declined

Summary

Introduction

Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam. We used the CLIMEX model to predict and compare the potential distribution for E. fornicates in China under current (1981–2010) and projected climate conditions (2011–2040) using one scenario (RCP8.5) and one global climate model (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. The polyphagous shot-hole borer, Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is native to Southeast Asia and has been accidentally introduced to many countries throughout the world, including countries in Africa, Asia, and the Americas[1,2] It is a selective, inconspicuous pest that attacks as many as 207 different tree species from 58 families, including Camellia sinensis (Theaceae), Persea bombycina and P. In the development of climate models to simulate future climate scenarios, predicting changes in the potential geographic distribution of pest species has become a hot area of research[13,15,16,17]. No previous study has predicted the potential geographic distribution of E. fornicates

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Results

Conclusion