Abstract
In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential distribution area of Solidago xniederederi, a natural hybrid between North American S. canadensis and European S. virgaurea, in Central and East Europe using the MAXENT modeling approach. The final MAXENT model was constructed based on 83 occurrence records from Austria, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia and six abiotic environmental variables. The jackknife test revealed that annual temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and minimum temperature of coldest month had the highest gain for the training and test data when used alone, whereas precipitation seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and precipitation of warmest quarter reduced the gain the most when excluded from the model and thus contributed the most information not presented with the other variables. A high probability of occurrence (>0.6) for S. xniederederi was found in 12 countries, namely Austria, Belarus, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Russia (Kaliningrad Oblast), Slovenia, Slovakia, and Ukraine. Our results showed in which areas the hybrid may be established under the European temperate climatic conditions; however, we do not indicate which areas exactly may be under invasion by the hybrid because such a statement needs population dynamic data for proper investigation. To prevent the negative impact of S. xniederederi on native S. virgaurea (i.e. competition for pollinators and introgression) we suggest that it should be controlled first in areas of high probability of occurrence, especially in Lithuania, Kaliningrad Oblast, Slovakia, Poland, and Austria, where the areas of high probability of hybrid occurrence account for more than 5% of the territory concerned.
Highlights
Natural hybrids between alien and native plant species are usually found in areas of overlapping ranges of their parental species
Solidago ×niederederi records In order to predict the potential distribution of Solidago ×niederederi in Central and East Europe with the MAXENT model we decided to use the records from Austria, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, where the hybrid is well recognized by specialists and considered an established alien species and, most importantly, where its distribution is supported by adequate GPS data
The jackknife test showed that in the final model formed with six environmental variables, annual temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and minimum temperature of coldest month had the highest gain for the training and test data when used alone (Table)
Summary
Natural hybrids between alien and native plant species are usually found in areas of overlapping ranges of their parental species. If they are viable and able to reproduce and spread, they can create their own geographical ranges, sometimes totally different from the ranges of one or both parental species, such as a hybrid between Spartina alternifolia Loisel. S. maritima (Curtis) Fernald that gave rise to S. anglica C.E. Hubb. (Ayres and Strong, 2001; Daehler and Carino, 2001; Stace et al, 2015) It was suggested by Pyšek et al (2004) that hybrids between alien and native plants should be treated as alien species because they arise in areas where geographical and ecological barriers have been broken by human activities, and as a consequence they can be considered as casual, established, or invasive species. Various modeling methods (heavily based on climatic data) have been used to predict distribution areas of naturalized or invasive plant species
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