Predicting the potential distribution and forest impact of the invasive species Cydalima perspectalis in Europe.

Quim Canelles,Lluís Brotons,Jordi Vayreda,Emili Bassols

doi:10.1002/ece3.7476

Quim Canelles, Lluís Brotons + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7476

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Abstract

Invasive species have considerably increased in recent decades due to direct and indirect effects of ever‐increasing international trade rates and new climate conditions derived from global change. We need to better understand how the dynamics of early species invasions develop and how these result in impacts on the invaded ecosystems. Here we studied the distribution and severe defoliation processes of the box tree moth (Cydalima perspectalis W.), a tree defoliator insect native to Asia and invasive in Europe since 2007, through the combination of species distribution models based on climate and landscape composition information. The results showed that the combination of data from the native and the invaded areas was the most effective methodology for the appropriate invasive species modeling. The species was not influenced by overall landscape factors, but only by the presence of its host plant, dispersal capacity, and climate suitability. Such climate suitability was described by low precipitation seasonality and minimum annual temperatures around 0°C, defining a continentality effect throughout the territory. We emphasize the need of studying distribution and severe defoliation processes separately because we identified that climate suitability was slightly involved in limiting species spread processes but strongly constrained ecosystem impact in terms of defoliation before the species reaches equilibrium with the new environment. New studies on habitat recovery after disturbance, ecological consequences of such impact, and community dynamics in a context of climate change are required for a better understanding of this invasive species.

Highlights

The incidence of alien species to invaded host ecosystems has increased in recent years due to climate change and the growth in international trade (Hulme, 2003)
The movement of alien species has been linked to human activity for millennia due to international trade that favors the accidental introduction of species into new ecosystems (Bradshaw et al, 2016; Hulme, 2009)
Some scientists question the relevance of climate change on alien species performance, because its importance is equivalent to other factors such as land cover or geography of each site (Pyšek et al, 2010)

Summary

| INTRODUCTION

The incidence of alien species to invaded host ecosystems has increased in recent years due to climate change and the growth in international trade (Hulme, 2003). The last 50 years have been characterized by an increase in transport networks and demand for commodities, allowing displacement of species into new ecosystems This trend is more notable in countries with high economic activity, large transport infrastructure, and facilitators of international commerce (such as dismantling of customs checkpoints in the case of European Union countries; Hulme, 2009; Roques et al, 2016). We addressed the following questions: (a) Does the climate niche in the native area define the expansion process of the species in recently invaded areas? (b) Is the species distribution influenced by habitat composition (e.g., forest cover, habitat fragmentation) interacting with the climate niche? (c) Are the processes of spread and impact different in terms of the underlying factors that determine these dynamics?

| MATERIALS AND METHODS

| DISCUSSION

Findings

| CONCLUSIONS