Predicting the potential distribution and coexistence of Chagas disease vectors in the Americas.

Abstract

Predicting the potential distribution and coexistence of suitable geographic areas for Chagas disease vectors in the Americas is a crucial task for understanding the eco-epidemiological dynamics of this disease. The potential distribution and coexistence of 3 species-Rhodnius prolixus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), Cavernicola pilosa (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), and Rhodnius pictipes (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) were modeled. Presence records were obtained and environmental variables were selected based on correlation analysis, Jackknife analysis and knowledge of the biology and natural history of the species. The MaxEnt algorithm included in the kuenm package of R software was used for modeling the potential distribution, and various scenarios of the BAM diagram (Biotic, Abiotic, and Movement variables) were evaluated. The variables contributing to the final models were different for each species. Rhodnius pictipes showed a potential distribution in South America, particularly in Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname. Areas with environmentally suitable conditions for R. prolixus were located in southern Brazil, Peru, Colombia, southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, whereas for C. pilosa they were in southeastern Brazil, southeastern Central America, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Co-occurrence analysis revealed distinct patterns in the neotropical region, with some areas indicating the potential distribution of 1 or more species. In Brazil, occurrence and co-occurrence areas were concentrated in the northwest and southeast regions. Overall, this study provides valuable information on the potential distribution and coexistence of vectors, which can inform targeted vector control strategies and contribute to global efforts in combating Chagas disease.