Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides

Shan Gao,Fangyuan Chen,Xiaolong Wang,Liya Huang,Haoning Wang,Zan Zeng

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-07512-w

Abstract

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.

Highlights

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease
AHS is caused by the African Horse Sickness Virus (AHSV), which belongs to the genus of Orbivirus in the family of Reoviridae[2]
In February 2020, Thailand reported a case of AHS for the first time in Southeast Asia and Organization for Animal Health (OIE) World Assembly of Delegates Resolution that the “AHS free country” status of Thailand is suspended with effect from 27 March 202015. subsequently, the “AHS free country” status of Malaysia is suspended with effect

Summary

Introduction

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. With regard to the current situation of AHS, some of these recent outbreaks occurred in provinces of Thailand that share borders with Myanmar, Cambodia, Malaysia and Laos. If they are not brought under control, AHS will directly threaten the equine industry in Southeast Asia and its neighboring countries. The increasing global trade and the climate changes may facilitate the spread of vector-borne diseases, as shown by recent outbreaks of Bluetongue and Smallenberg viruses and demonstrating the rising viral transmission by Culicoides in non-endemic a reas[18,19]. The wide geographic distribution of Culicoides spp. and potential year-round activity poses an inherent risk of AHSV spreading among neighboring c ountries[21]

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Conclusion