Predicting the performance of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) method utilizing artificial neural network (ANN)

Abstract

As the price of oil decreases, it is becoming increasingly important for oil companies to operate in the most cost-effective manner. This problem is especially apparent in Western Canada, where most oil production is dependent on costly enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques such as steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). Therefore, the goal of this study is to create an artificial neural network (ANN) that is capable of accurately predicting the ultimate recovery factor of oil reservoirs by steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). The developed ANN model featured over 250 unique entries for oil viscosity, steam injection rate, horizontal permeability, permeability ratio, porosity, reservoir thickness, and steam injection pressure collected from literature. The collected data set was entered through a feed-forward back-propagation neural network to train, validate, and test the model to predict the recovery factor of SAGD method as accurate as possible. Results from this study revealed that the neural network was able to accurately predict recovery factors of selected projects with less than 10% error. When the neural network was exposed to a new simulation data set of 64 points, the predictions were found to have an accuracy of 82% as measured by linear regression. Finally, the feasibility of ANN to predict the recovery performance of one of the most complicated enhanced heavy oil recovery techniques with reasonable accuracy was confirmed.