Abstract
BackgroundThe onset of venous thromboembolism is insidious and the prognosis is poor. In this study, we aimed to construct a VTE risk warning model and testified its clinical application value.MethodsPreliminary construction of the VTE risk warning model was carried out according to the independent risk warning indicators of VTE screened by Logistic regression analysis. The truncated value of screening VTE was obtained and the model was evaluated. ROC curve analysis was used to compare the test of Caprini risk assessment scale and VTE risk warning model. The cut-off value of the VTE risk warning model was used to evaluate the test effectiveness of the model for VTE patients with validation data set.ResultsThe VTE risk warning model is p = ex / (1+ ex), x = − 4.840 + 2.557 • X10(1) + 1.432 • X14(1) + 2.977 • X15(1) + 3.445 • X18(1) + 1.086 • X25(1) + 0.249 • X34 + 0.282 • X41. ROC curve results show that: AUC (95%CI), cutoff value, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, Youden index, Caprini risk assessment scale is 0.596 (0.552, 0.638), 5, 26.07, 96.50, 61.3%, 0.226, VTE risk warning model is 0.960 (0.940, 0.976), 0.438, 92.61, 91.83, 92.2%, 0.844, respectively, with statistically significant differences (Z = 14.521, P < 0.0001). The accuracy and Youden index of VTE screening using VTE risk warning model were 81.8 and 62.5%, respectively.ConclusionsVTE risk warning model had high accuracy in predicting VTE occurrence in hospitalized patients. Its test performance was better than Caprini risk assessment scale. It also had high test performance in external population.
Highlights
The onset of venous thromboembolism is insidious and the prognosis is poor
Its test performance was better than Caprini risk assessment scale
Multivariate analysis of Venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk early warning indicators Univariate analysis was performed on 41 variables, of which there were 15 variables with statistical significance of P < 0.05
Summary
The onset of venous thromboembolism is insidious and the prognosis is poor. We aimed to construct a VTE risk warning model and testified its clinical application value. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common disease with high morbidity and mortality [1], including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), VTE is the third most common cardiovascular disorder. Shen et al BMC Cardiovascular Disorders (2020) 20:249 differences between Western and China limit the validity of Caprini Risk Assessment Scale in Chinese patients. The timely detection of abnormal change will facilitate the VTE occurrence risk assessment and enable early warning and intervention. Based on characteristics of VTE patients in China, this study screened out VTE risk early warning indicators other than the traditional scale, and established a VTE Risk Warning Model. This study was to effectively achieve the primary prevention of VTE and provide a scientific theory for VTE prevention
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