Predicting the number of hunting animals in the State complex “Zavidovo” based on a mathematical model

Abstract

It is necessary to predict the number of hunting animals under the conditions of the impact of endogenous and exogenous factors the habitat and economic use, for rational and inexhaustible their use. Understanding changes in the number of hunting animals is an important tool for managing hunting resources. Predicting of the number of hunting animals in the region as a rule, is based on trend models of population dynamics. In practice, the calculation and constructive method and the method of mathematical modeling have become the most widespread in predicting the population of hunting animals in dynamics. The computational and constructive method is based on the use of correlation and regression models, but it does not take into account the main indicators of population size formation: the fertility rate, which is formed on the basis of the specic weight of males, the percentage of yeldness and the number of calves (young animals) in the calving (litter), and the livability depending on the percentage of natural death and losses from poaching. The method of mathematical modeling involves the compilation of mathematical models and conducting model experiments to predict the number of species of hunting animals in dynamics. The relevance of this mathematical analysis lies in its multifactorial nature and rather high reliability. In the eld of predicting the number of hunting animals the modied P. H. Leslie model is of particular interest. The purpose of the work was to predict the number of wild ungulates (roe deer, elk, maral and spotted deer) in the Zavidovo State Complex in the Tver region until 2035. The use of the modied P. H. Leslie model makes it possible to predict the development of hunting animal populations both in the Zavidovo State Complex as a whole and in individual hunting areas with precise adjustment of models according to area parameters.