Predicting the Need for Surgery in Uncomplicated Adhesive Small Bowel Obstruction: A Scoring Tool

Abstract

IntroductionNonoperative treatment can be attempted for uncomplicated adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO), but carries a risk of delayed surgery. Highlighting initial parameters predicting risk of failure of nonoperative management would be of great interest. MethodsPatients initially managed conservatively for uncomplicated ASBO were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify predictive failure's factors. Based on the risk factors, a score was created and then prospectively validated in a different patients' population. ResultsAmong 171 patients included, 98 (57.3%) were successfully managed conservatively. In a multivariate analysis, three independent nonoperative management failure's factors were identified: Charlson Index ≥4 (P = 0.016), distal obstruction (P = 0.009), and maximum small bowel diameter over vertical abdominal diameter ratio >0.34 (P = 0.023). A score of two or three was associated with a risk of surgery of 51.4% or 70.3% in the retrospective analysis and 62.2% or 75% in the validation cohort, respectively. ConclusionsThis clinical-radiological score may help guide surgical decision-making in uncomplicated ASBO. A high score (≥2) was predictive of failure of nonoperative management. This tool could assist surgeons to determine who would benefit from early surgery.