Predicting the Military Career Success of United States Air Force Academy Cadets

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that best predicted the military career success (twenty years of service and the achievement of the rank of lieutenant colonel) of Air Force Academy cadets. The Department of Institutional Research at the Air Force Academy provided the data. The sample included admitted cadets between 1982 and 1990. Three hypotheses were tested using probit regression: (1) admissions variables, (2) Academy variables, and (3) aeronautical status had a statistically significant impact on career success. The model was 97.34 percent accurate in predicting career failure, 12.50 percent accurate in predicting career success, and 75.57 percent accurate overall. These results suggest determinates of career success largely occur after graduation. They also suggest the possibility to identify those less likely to achieve career success using admissions and Academy variables. Academy leadership may design interventions to increase the likelihood cadets will achieve career success.