Predicting the Market Penetration Rate of China’s Electric Vehicles Based on a Grey Buffer Operator Approach

Abstract

On the decision of whether to continue to implement the industrial support policy, two scenarios are set to predict the market penetration rate of China’s electric vehicles (EVs) (In this paper, the term Electric Vehicles (EVs) refers to both full-battery EVs and plug-in hybrids). In order to weaken the disturbance caused by international oil prices and industrial policies, the grey buffer operator was firstly applied, to preprocess the original data series. The sales data for EVs and fuel vehicles were buffered for second order and first order, respectively. Based on the obtained buffer data sequence, the GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the sales of EVs and fuel vehicles between 2022 and 2025 in China. The results demonstrate a significantly improved fit compared to directly modeling the raw data. This method is suitable for studying the market penetration rate prediction of China’s EVs. If the industry support policies continue (Scenario I), an EV market penetration rate of 22.45% can be achieved in 2024, and the expected target can be achieved one year ahead of schedule. Even if the corresponding industrial support policies are no longer implemented (Scenario II), the EV market penetration rate will reach 20.58% in 2025, and the set target of 20% will be achieved on schedule.