Predicting the Intention Not to Vote in Late Teenage: A U.K. Study of 17- and 18-Year-Olds

Abstract

The great bulk of research into the psychology of voting behavior has been concerned with accounting for partisan preferences and political actions, particularly of unconventional kinds. Despite the fact that some 30% of the U.K. and over 50% of U.S. electorate fail to vote at general elections, little direct attention has been paid to accounting for nonvoting and political apathy in general. Utilizing British data from teenagers participating in the E. S.R. C.'s 16-19 Initiative (n = 2200) we will attempt to demonstrate the following: (1) That it is possible to predict those who explicitly intend not to vote by knowing about levels of cognitive factors such as lack of interest and a generalized cynicism about politicians. (2) That such cognitive factors are better predictors of intention to vote than background factors. Indeed, unlike existing U.S. evidence, low social status is not a predictor of nonvoting in this British sample. (3) That levels of political interest are based upon past educational achievement and existing beliefs about the political system. These findings will be discussed in the context of schema theories current within cognitive political psychology.