Abstract
The article identifies possible consequences and integration effects of university mergers based on the simulation modeling the process of university entrants' choice of educational institution. The preferences and priorities of applicants' choice are based on the survey of schoolchildren of grades 10-11 in all municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Based on the retrospective data of universities for 2017-2020, the authors conducted component and cluster analysis, the results of which formed the basis for estimating the ranking of universities and forecasting the ranking of the universities to be merged. Based on the simulation model calibrated on the regional data, computational experiments and scenarios of impact on the behaviour of university entrants were conducted in order to regulate their behaviour, in particular the possible reduction of educational migration in the region.
Highlights
The article identifies possible consequences and integration effects of university mergers based on the simulation modeling the process of university entrants' choice
The preferences and priorities of applicants' choice are based on the survey of schoolchildren
the results of which formed the basis for estimating the ranking of universities
Summary
На основе ретроспективных данных вузов за 2017-2020 гг., был проведен компонентный анализ, который предполагает преобразование системы k исходных признаков в систему K новых показателей (главных компонент). Модель компонентного анализа имеет следующий вид [10]: Zji=aj1*F1i+aj2*F2i+...+ajk*Fki, Где akj – факторная нагрузка (вес) главной компоненты j-го параметра; Fki – значение главной компоненты для i-го объекта; Zji – нормированное значение j-го признака для i-го объекта.
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