Predicting the impacts of climate change on the biological control of Plutella xylostella by Diadegma semiclausum

Abstract

Abstract The parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum Hellén (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) has been widely adopted as a biological control agent for Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) over the last 80 years. Earlier studies have found differential responses to temperature between the host and its parasitoid and demonstrated the multiple ways in which the parasitoid is more susceptible to elevated temperatures. Using data from experimental studies, the modelling package CLIMEX was used to investigate the suitability of current climates for the host and its parasitoid and the effects on their potential global geographical distributions. The study was then extended to investigate possible changes to these distributions that might result under different climate change scenarios by 2080. The models predict that the global distributions of both the host and parasitoid will be reduced. These changes will not be proportionate and many areas in tropical, sub‐tropical, and temperate regions that are currently suitable for D. semiclausum are predicted to become unsuitable for the parasitoid, whereas retaining suitability for P. xylostella. The seasonal dynamics of both the host and parasitoid are also predicted to be significantly reshaped under climate change. Analysis of associations between annual P. xylostella outbreaks and weather conditions in three provinces in China with field data collected between 1995 and 2017 indicated significant effects of temperature on P. xylostella outbreaks at the beginning of the peak season in warmer provinces where P. xylostella can overwinter; such associations were not found in the colder provinces where it is unable to survive harsh winters.