Predicting the impact of Trans Java Toll Roads on demand for intercity air travel in Indonesia

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the factors influencing a potential air passenger shift to autos due to the completion of the Trans Java Toll Road and an increase in airfares. The study focuses on intercity trips for nonbusiness purposes. A face-to-face interview survey of 751 air passengers was conducted in three main airports on Java Island, Indonesia. Both the theory of planned behavior and the discrete choice model were applied to understand the factors for influencing toll road use among air passengers. The empirical results reveal that psychological factors, consisting of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived moral obligations significantly influenced intentions to use the toll road. Meanwhile, perceived control of external resources was essential for airline passengers in their intention to use toll roads. Sociodemographic factors such as age, gender, income, frequency of airplane use, travel time, and cost also significantly influenced the decision to drive. Female, older passengers, high-income passengers, and frequent flyers were more likely to continue flying. The finding confirms that the Trans Java Toll Road affected a decline in air demand on Java Island. However, traveling with family members, rather than airfare hikes, became a more substantial reason for air passengers to switch to driving the toll roads. This research found that air passengers were inelastic related to changes in travel time, while 6% were willing to switch due to airfare increases of 10%.