Abstract
The Climate Change scenario projected by the IPCC for the year 2050 predicts noticeable increases in temperature. In severe summer climates, such as the Mediterranean area, this would have very negative effects on thermal comfort in the existing housing stock, given the current high percentage of dwellings which are obsolete in energy terms and house a population at serious risk of energy poverty. The main aim of this paper is to generate a predictive model in order to assess the impact of this future climate scenario on thermal comfort conditions in an entire building category. To do so, calibrated models representing linear-type social multi-family buildings, dating from the post-war period and located in southern Spain, will be simulated extensively using transient energy analyses performed by EnergyPlus. In addition, a sensitivity analysis will be performed to identify the most influential parameters on thermal discomfort. The main results predict a generalized deterioration in indoor thermal comfort conditions due to global warming, increasing the average percentage of discomfort hours during the summer by more than 35%. This characterization of the future thermal behaviour of the residential stock in southern Spain could be a trustworthy tool for decision-making in energy retrofitting projects which are so badly needed. To do so, further work is required on some limitations of this model so that different user profiles and typologies can be represented in detail and an economic assessment can be included.
Highlights
Given the contrasted climate evolution towards an increase in global temperatures, numerous studies and organizations agree on the need to warn society about the risks faced
For the evaluation of thermal comfort, the results obtained for the 750 case studies representing the building category (Table S1), both under typical climatic conditions and for the 2050 climate scenario, were studied through histograms and the normal distribution established as the best fit
The percentage of discomfort hours was calculated for the winter (DHh ) and summer (DHc ) periods, as well as for the whole year (DH), following the methods described in Section 2.1 and
Summary
Given the contrasted climate evolution towards an increase in global temperatures, numerous studies and organizations agree on the need to warn society about the risks faced. This global warming, directly related to greenhouse gas emissions, is attributed to a large extent to the building sector, considered one of the major energy consumers worldwide. In the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [3], the IPCC presents a set of future scenarios—A1, A2, B1 and. A2 is the most unfavourable scenario, with the highest CO2 concentration predicted for the year 2100, and is considered a priority in the research of the impact and consequences of climate change
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