Abstract
Simple SummaryClimate change influences the distribution of species. The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that damages the native ecosystem. In this study, we evaluated the current and future distribution of S. geminata under climate change using the ecological niche model. The model results showed that the favorable habitat area of S. geminata will expand to higher latitudes on a global scale due to future global warming. Some countries located in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, can be threatened by S. geminata due to climate change.The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of S. geminata on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of S. geminata and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of S. geminata. Although the potential global distribution area of S. geminata is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by S. geminata invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of S. geminata through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.
Highlights
Invasive species have markedly influenced native species, communities, and ecosystems and caused extensive damage to human health and the economy around the world [1,2]
This study aimed to identify the key environmental variables that correlate with the distribution of S. geminata on a global scale and predict the current and future potential distribution of S. geminata in response to climate change scenarios using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model
The study of Byeon et al [7] lacked information related to the influence of environmental variables on the prediction of S. geminata, whereas our model showed that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key factors influencing the distribution of S. geminata
Summary
Invasive species have markedly influenced native species, communities, and ecosystems and caused extensive damage to human health and the economy around the world [1,2]. S. geminata is native to tropical and temperate regions of the American continent [10]; this ant has spread around the world, to Africa, south and southeast Asia, and Australia [9,11,12], through international trade and human activities. It is unclear whether some populations are native or introduced [10]. Effective measures are required to prevent and control the dispersal of S. geminata
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