Predicting the future urban growth and it's impacts on the surrounding environment using urban simulation models: Case study of Ibb city – Yemen

Abstract

This paper aims at predicting the future urban growth and its impact on the Yemeni city of Ibb. It adopts a combined urban simulation model using both Cellular Automata (CA) and Fuzzy Set, integrated in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) platform. The research methodology includes three main stages: (1) preparation of historical data on land uses (2003, 2013), (2) simulation of data using urban simulation models (CA & Fuzzy set) in LanduseSim software environment, and (3) visualizing data. The model was validated using the pixel matching method for both the simulation map and actual map for the year of 2013. The match ratio was 93.76% for all layers and 89.40% for the urban layer. Accordingly, the final simulation was completed to the year 2033. The results show a horizontal distribution of urban growth with a high percentage of increase in urban areas; from 28.41% in 2013 to 43.11% in 2033. This increase occurs at the expense of agricultural and natural land. The study recommends a reconsideration of the the city expansion strategies by decision makers in government in order to ensure ecological balance.