Abstract
By using information and communication technology (ICT), eHealth is a key enabler in improving healthcare, specifically its efficiency, productivity, quality, and patient satisfaction. Whilst eHealth applies technical developments to healthcare services, it is also about managing, finding, using, recording, and transmitting information to support health-related decisions. Moreover, eHealth encompasses a broad approach and commitment to improving healthcare through networking and co-operation. Thus healthcare providers need to have sufficient tools to predict and involve the possible futures of healthcare, specifically in the context of continuous eHealth development, implementation and innovations. This paper introduces the Futures Wheel (FW) method, describes the process for its use and some of its outcomes as a tool by which to achieve these goals. Based on experiences from over 60 FW working groups, the authors suggest that the FW method helps to see the possible futures of healthcare and eases the necessary adaptation inherent in eHealth. The FW method provides information and knowledge that professionals can utilise both to influence their future and to gain knowledge about alternative futures. The FW method is suggested for healthcare professionals who want to predict alternative futures of healthcare and eHealth in order to make important decisions that may have far-reaching consequences.
Highlights
Futures studies, or futurology, is an increasingly mainstream social science approach that uses a variety of methods to systematically aggregate and analyse trends to examine what is ‘likely to continue and what could plausibly change’ in order to forecast possible futures
It is crucial to implement and evaluate methods that can predict the futures for eHealth
When using the Futures Wheel method, one should be fully aware that thinking about the future using a systematic procedure means accepting that we cannot know the future
Summary
Futurology, is an increasingly mainstream social science approach that uses a variety of methods to systematically aggregate and analyse trends to examine what is ‘likely to continue and what could plausibly change’ in order to forecast possible futures. Learning can be considered anticipation, so anticipation skills and future thinking must be the starting point of development work and part of all learning.[1,2] One of the aims of futures studies in the context of healthcare is to systematically explore both possible and desirable futures and to improve decisions made by practitioners, managers, leaders, educators, policy makers and clients/patients.[3] By examining different development paths, futures studies can describe multiple scenarios such as current and new styles of ehealthcare processes and effects of digitalisation and help inform perceptions, alternatives and choices about the future.[4] healthcare providers need futures research to offer them a vision for their future work and work environments. There are few methods which help healthcare providers to predict alternative futures for healthcare, in the area of eHealth innovations and implementation
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