Predicting the Evolution of the 2014–2016 California Current System Marine Heatwave From an Ensemble of Coupled Global Climate Forecasts

Michael G Jacox,Desiree Tommasi,Gaelle Hervieux,Michael A Alexander,Charles A Stock

doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00497

Abstract

Throughout 2014-2016, the California Current System (CCS) was characterized by large and persistent sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa), which were accompanied by widespread ecological and socioeconomic consequences that have been documented extensively in the scientific literature and in the popular press. This marine heatwave and others have resulted in a heightened awareness of their potential impacts and prompted questions about if and when they may be predictable. Here, we use output from an ensemble of global climate forecast systems to document which aspects of the 2014-2016 CCS heatwave were predictable and how forecast skill, or lack thereof, relates to mechanisms driving the heatwave’s evolution. We focus on four prominent SSTa changes within the 2014-2016 period: (i) the initial onset of anomalous warming in early 2014, (ii) a second rapid SSTa increase in late 2014, (iii) a sharp reduction and subsequent return of warm SSTa in mid-2015, and (iv) another anomalous warming event in early 2016. Models exhibited clear forecast skill for the first and last of these fluctuations, but not the two in the middle. Taken together with the state of knowledge on the dominant forcing mechanisms of this heatwave, our results suggest that CCS SSTa forecast skill derives from predictable evolution of pre-existing SSTa to the west (as in early 2014) and the south (as in early 2016), while the inability of models to forecast wind-driven SSTa in late 2014 and mid-2015 is consistent with the lack of a moderate or strong El Nino or La Nina event preceding those periods. The multi-model mean forecast consistently outperformed a damped persistence forecast, especially during the period of largest SSTa, and skillful CCS forecasts were generally associated with accurate representation of large-scale dynamics. Additionally, a large forecast ensemble (85 members) indicated elevated probabilities for observed SSTa extremes even when ensemble mean forecasts exhibited limited skill. Our results suggest that different types or aspects of marine heat waves are more or less predictable depending on the forcing mechanisms at play, and events that are consistent with predictable ocean responses could inform ecosystem-based management of the ocean.

Highlights

In 2013, a region of highly anomalous warm ocean anomalies, colloquially known as “the Blob,” developed in the surface ocean of the northeast Pacific (Bond et al, 2015)
We focus on the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) forecast error to evaluate predictions of mean California Current System (CCS) conditions and spatial anomaly correlations to evaluate the ability of models to predict the spatial evolution of SSTa more broadly in the northeast Pacific
While warm SSTa generally persisted along the North American coast from early 2014 through at least 2016, on monthly timescales the CCS saw distinct periods of increasing and decreasing SSTa

Summary

Introduction

In 2013, a region of highly anomalous warm ocean anomalies (i.e., a marine heatwave), colloquially known as “the Blob,” developed in the surface ocean of the northeast Pacific (Bond et al, 2015). While marine heatwaves have been defined in multiple ways, at least one study categorized this one as a “severe” heatwave with a duration of over 700 days (Hobday et al, 2018) This unprecedented physical anomaly brought with it widespread ecological consequences including dramatic range shifts of species at all trophic levels (Cavole et al, 2016; Peterson et al, 2017; Sanford et al, 2019), a coastwide outbreak of toxic algae (McCabe et al, 2016; Ryan et al, 2017) and mass strandings of marine mammals and seabirds (Cavole et al, 2016). Similar impacts have been documented for other marine heatwaves around the globe (e.g., Mills et al, 2013; Wernberg et al, 2013; Oliver et al, 2017), and increasing emphasis is being placed on the role of these types of events in disrupting marine ecosystem functioning (Smale et al, 2019)

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