Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia.

Dabiah Alboaneen,Dhahi Alshammari,Nourah Alqahtani,Raja Alyaffer,Bernardi Pranggono

doi:10.3390/ijerph17124568

Abstract

The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak continues to spread rapidly across the world and has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). Saudi Arabia was among the countries that was affected by the deadly and contagious virus. Using a real-time data from 2 March 2020 to 15 May 2020 collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, we aimed to give a local prediction of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. We used two models: the Logistic Growth and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered for real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Saudi Arabia. Our models predicted that the epidemics of COVID-19 will have total cases of 69,000 to 79,000 cases. The simulations also predicted that the outbreak will entering the final-phase by end of June 2020.

Highlights

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are distributed among humans and animals such as livestock, birds, bats and other wild animals
The Logistic Growth model results of COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia are shown in Figures 3 and 4
The SIR model of COVID-19 epidemic simulation in Saudi Arabia are shown in Figures 5 and 6

Summary

Introduction

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are distributed among humans and animals such as livestock, birds, bats and other wild animals. These viruses cause serious illnesses for human when infecting respiratory, hepatic, gastrointestinal and neurological [1,2,3]. The disease, formally called COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), caused an outbreak of a typical pneumonia through human-to-human transmission starting from Wuhan, a highly populated city with more than eleven million residents, rapidly spread in China [5]. On 11 March 2020, WHO officially declared COVID-19 outbreak as a global pandemic as the virus has spread to well over 200 countries around the world [8]. COVID-19 has infected more than 4.5 million people and killed over 300,000 people across the world [8]

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