PREDICTING THE EFFICIENCY OF MEASURES TO REDUCE SALT CONSUMPTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

Introduction: Excessive salt intake (ESI) is a well-established risk factor of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Russia is among the countries with the high salt consumption. Population-based strategies to reduce salt intake have a potential for significant contribution to reduce the burden of NCDs. Modeling studies to justify the need and quantify the potential of these measures have been performed in several countries, but the evidence from Russia is still scarce. Aim: To forecast the efficiency of selected population-based prevention strategies to reduce salt intake in Russia. Methods: Potential efficiency of two population-based strategies was assessed. Introduction of the national excise tax on sodium used for industrial food production was the first strategy. The second strategy was a long term health literacy mass-media campaign aimed to reduce salt intake combined with a voluntary reduction in salt content in processed foods by manufacturers. Russia-specific impact of ESI on NCDs and population attributive risk (PAR) were calculated using previously assessed economic burden (EB) of ESI. The prediction period was 15 years. The changes in PAR after the introduction of population-based prevention strategies and changes in the EB of selected NCDs were calculated. Results: The first and the second programmed had a potential to reduce ESI prevalence by 2.99 % and 7.49 %, respectively. The corresponding numbers of prevented cases of NCDs were 23 352 and 57 874. Avoided direct medical costs exceeded 390 million rubles for the first strategy and over 969 million rubles for the second. The cumulative economic effect over 15 years was 4.10 billion rubles for the introduction of the new tax while the predicted cumulative economic effect of the second programme was 9.9 billion rubles. Conclusions: Although the population-based prevention strategies selected for this study have not yet been implemented in Russia, both have a significant potential to reduce the burden of NCDs and have substantial economic efficiency.