Predicting the ecosystem service values and constructing ecological security patterns in future changing land use patterns

Abstract

The land use and land cover change (LUCC) associated with climate change and human activities poses a persistent threat to ecosystems, profoundly impacting ecological security. Simulating spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) and ecological security patterns (ESPs) under different future land use scenarios is crucial for formulating sustainable development policies. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for multi-scenario analysis, which combines the system dynamics (SD) model, patch-generated land-use simulation (PLUS) model, and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model to simulate ESV and ESP changes under future LUCC scenarios using the SSP-RCP scenarios provided by CMIP6. The results show that under the three scenarios (SSP245, SSP585, and SSP126), the ESV for the year 2050 is predicted to be 10.285 billion yuan, 10.248 billion yuan, and 10.327 billion yuan, respectively. Additionally, the area of ecological sources is estimated to be 78.56 km2, 65.90 km2, and 141.38 km2, while the lengths of ecological corridors are predicted to be 428.05 km, 332.45 km, and 527.10 km, and the numbers of ecological nodes are 14, 9, and 15, respectively. Notably, the SSP126 scenario demonstrates a significant improvement in ESP compared to the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, indicating effective protection of ecological land. This study provides valuable insights and serves as a crucial reference for future decision-making concerning ecosystem conservation and land resource management at the county and municipal scales.