Predicting the economic feasibility of solar-based net-zero emission buildings (NZEBs) in the United States non-residential sector

Abstract

Buildings have significantly contributed to high energy demand (30.3%) and GHG emissions (26.1%) worldwide. Consequently, many developed countries have set carbon-neutral targets for 2050, mandating that all new constructions thereafter be designed as net-zero emission buildings (NZEBs). To achieve this goal, one of the most practical sources of renewable energy, solar power, is employed in this study to estimate the economic feasibility of implementing NZEBs in the non-residential sector of the United States. While past studies have typically estimated the economic payback period of solar power technology by assuming fixed values for “PV energy conversion rates (%)” and “investment costs ($USD)”, this paper carefully investigated the economic feasibility of “solar-based NZEBs” by precisely tracking these dynamic future changes in PV panels. These techno-economic variables were carefully predicted using a statistical technique known as the five-parameter logistic (5 PL) function. The results show that Site 4 is the only solar region suitable for implementing “PV-integrated NZEBs”, reaching a payback period of 8.44 years in 2040 (Scenario 1). Furthermore, with small technological improvements in PV energy efficiency (%), buildings located in Site 3 and Site 4 can meet the net-zero emission target with payback periods of less than 10 years in 2034 (Scenario 2). Finally, starting in 2044, the “PV-integrated system” will have a payback period of approximately 7 years in most study locations, even without federal support for the solar investment tax credit (SITC). Accordingly, federal support for solar power generation will be more effective if the SITC rate is gradually reduced by 2.5% annually starting in 2033. In conclusion, this paper suggests the economic feasibility of implementing solar-based NZEBs in the United States non-residential sector by considering the synergetic effect of technological improvement and cost reduction in PV-integrated systems.