Predicting the Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer’s Disease Using an Explainable AI Approach

Abstract

Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is a cognitive state frequently observed in older adults, characterized by significant alterations in memory, thinking, and reasoning abilities that extend beyond typical cognitive decline. It is worth noting that around 10–15% of individuals with MCI are projected to develop Alzheimer’s disease, effectively positioning MCI as an early stage of Alzheimer’s. In this study, a novel approach is presented involving the utilization of eXtreme Gradient Boosting to predict the onset of Alzheimer’s disease during the MCI stage. The methodology entails utilizing data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Through the analysis of longitudinal data, spanning from the baseline visit to the 12-month follow-up, a predictive model was constructed. The proposed model calculates, over a 36-month period, the likelihood of progression from MCI to Alzheimer’s disease, achieving an accuracy rate of 85%. To further enhance the precision of the model, this study implements feature selection using the Recursive Feature Elimination technique. Additionally, the Shapley method is employed to provide insights into the model’s decision-making process, thereby augmenting the transparency and interpretability of the predictions.