Predicting the Consequences of Alternative Harvest Regulations in a Sequential Fishery

Abstract

Abstract Management of the fishery for chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha on the Yukon River is complicated by the lack of accurate preseason forecasts, limited information on the determinants of the dynamics of unit stocks, harvesting effort directed at a mixture of stocks, joint harvesting of chum salmon O. keta, and the sequential availability of the returning fish to subsistence, commercial, and sport fishers in Alaska and Canada. A stochastic simulation model was developed and used to examine the consequences of eight alternative strategies for setting commercial catch limits. The merit of each strategy was judged by three criteria: probability of satisfying escapement objectives, probability of simultaneously satisfying escapement and subsistence harvest objectives and the probability of also reaching commercial harvest goals. The results indicate that without improved preseason forecasts, subsistence and commercial catch objectives cannot be consistently achieved in the upper Yukon River unles...