Predicting the Children's Blood Lead Level in a Lead and Zinc Smelting Area Based on IEUBK Model

Abstract

According to environmental lead exposure data and dietary survey data of lead and zinc smelting area,blood lead levels of children (2~7years old) in study area were predicted with IEUBK model. The children's blood lead concentration predicted value was compared with the corresponding measured value,by comparing the differences, measured the prediction ability of model. The results showed that predicted value and measured value of 2~7 years old children's blood lead concentration in A village were higher than the other villages, they were 33.5μg/dL,30.8μg/dL, respectively; predicted value and measured value of 2~7 years old children's blood lead concentration in I village were the lowest among all villages,they were14.5μg/dL,13.1μg/dL, respectively.By paired T-test showed that the predicted value were higher than the measured value about 1.4~3.4μg/dL,model calculation results slightly overestimated the children's blood lead level.But in general, the predicted value and measured value had a good consistency,through the model prediction could better reflect the children's blood lead levels in the study area.