Predicting the Academic Success of College Athletes

Abstract

Abstract Our purpose was to assess the impact of NCAA Bylaw 5–1-(J), pre-facto, on admission and graduation rates of student athletes at the University of Michigan by answering two questions: (a) Does the SAT predict equally well for blacks and non-blacks? and (b) Does limiting admissions have an effect on grade point average (GPA) and on graduation rates? Subjects comprised all grant-in-aid football players entering the program from 1974–1983; the measures were SAT verbal and math scores (SATSUM), high school grade point average (HSGPA), and first semester college grade point average (CGPA). SAT scores were unrelated to CGPA for black athletes and were weakly related for non-blacks; HSGPA alone predicts CGPA. SATSUM of 700 would have resulted in nonadmission of 60% of blacks (of whom 86% actually succeeded). Graduation rates would have been affected similarly. Limiting admission had no positive effect on GPAs or graduation but a severe negative effect due to nonadmission of blacks.