Predicting the 1‐AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections

Abstract

We describe an empirical model to predict the 1‐AU arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This model is based on an effective interplanetary (IP) acceleration described by Gopalswamy et al. [2000b] that the CMEs are subject to, as they propagate from the Sun to 1 AU. We have improved this model (1) by minimizing the projection effects (using data from spacecraft in quadrature) in determining the initial speed of CMEs, and (2) by allowing for the cessation of the interplanetary acceleration before 1 AU. The resulting effective IP acceleration was higher in magnitude than what was obtained from CME measurements from spacecraft along the Sun‐Earth line. We evaluated the predictive capability of the CME arrival model using recent two‐point measurements from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Wind, and ACE spacecraft. We found that an acceleration cessation distance of 0.76 AU is in reasonable agreement with the observations. The new prediction model reduces the average prediction error from 15.4 to 10.7 hours. The model is in good agreement with the observations for high‐speed CMEs. For slow CMEs the model as well as observations show a flat arrival time of ∼4.3 days. Use of quadrature observations minimized the projection effects naturally without the need to assume the width of the CMEs. However, there is no simple way of estimating the projection effects based on the surface location of the Earth‐directed CMEs observed by a spacecraft (such as SOHO) located along the Sun‐Earth line because it is impossible to measure the width of these CMEs. The standard assumption that the CME is a rigid cone may not be correct. In fact, the predicted arrival times have a better agreement with the observed arrival times when no projection correction is applied to the SOHO CME measurements. The results presented in this work suggest that CMEs expand and accelerate near the Sun (inside 0.7 AU) more than our model supposes; these aspects will have to be included in future models.