Predicting temporal shifts in the spring occurrence of overwintered Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and rice phenology in Korea with climate change.

Abstract

Climate change could shift the phenology of insects and plants and alter their linkage in space and time. We examined the synchrony of rice and its insect pest, Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister), under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario by comparing the mean spring immigration time of overwintered S. lurida with the mean rice transplanting times in Korea. The immigration time of S. lurida was estimated using an overwintered adult flight model. The rice transplanting time of three cultivars (early, medium, and medium-late maturing) was estimated by forecasting the optimal cultivation period using leaf appearance and final leaf number models. A temperature increase significantly advanced the 99% immigration time of S. lurida from Julian day 192.1 in the 2000s to 178.4 in the 2050s and 163.1 in the 2090s. In contrast, rice transplanting time was significantly delayed in the early-maturing cultivar from day 141.2 in the 2000s to 166.7 in the 2050s and 190.6 in the 2090s, in the medium-maturing cultivar from day 130.6 in the 2000s to 156.6 in the 2050s and 184.7 in the 2090s, and in the medium-late maturing cultivar from day 128.5 in 2000s to 152.9 in the 2050s and 182.3 in the 2090s. These simulation results predict a significant future phenological asynchrony between S. lurida and rice in Korea.