Predicting suitable habitats of four range margin amphibians under climate and land-use changes in southwestern France

Abstract

Whereas the effects of climate change on the potential range shifts of amphibians have been modeled at various scales, exploring the future impacts of land-use changes has rarely been considered. We modeled the potential distribution of Bombina variegata, Hyla arborea, Hyla meridionalis, and Triturus cristatus using ecological niche modeling, in the French administrative region Nouvelle-Aquitaine. The species are all at range margin in the study area which makes them interesting model species to study range shifts because of their potential local adaptations to their marginal habitat. We used Dyna-CLUE modeling framework to produce land-use change scenarios and combined them with RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios to predict their impact on local amphibian distributions. B. variegata, H. arborea, and T. cristatus were predicted to shift eastward and northward. H. meridionalis was predicted to increase its probability of presence in the study area. The effect of climate determined the general pattern of distribution and was modulated depending on the scenarios of land-use change.