Abstract
Lamongan Regency is one of Indonesia’s regencies in Indonesia that contribute to the country’s sugarcane and sugar production. Land-use/land-cover changes (LULC) have happened in various areas, including Lamongan Regency in East Java, Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the impact of land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) in 2007–2031 on the sugar balance in the Lamongan Regency in 2031. The LULC forecast in 2031 was made using R studio using the CLUE-s function in the LULCC package. Following that, the sugar requirements and sugar balance in Lamongan Regency in 2031 were forecasts. The kappa accuracy of the LULC model tested in 2019 was 0.81 when using the CLUE-s model in R studio’s LULCC package. The findings of the LULC prediction in Lamongan Regency for 2031 indicated that there could be significant changes in LULC, resulting in an estimated reduction in 1,687.5 ha sugarcane, influenced by LULC competition for built-up areas. The Built-up areas in Lamongan Regency have exploded in size as a result of population. An increase in built-up areas and a reduction in sugarcane plantations as a result of LULCC are expected to diminish the sugar balance in Lamongan Regency by 10,470.76 tons in 2031 when compared to 2019. The results of this study can be utilized to prevent uncontrolled LULCC in the future to meet sugar needs in Lamongan Regency and at the national level.
Highlights
Indonesia’s current sugar production capacity is insufficient to meet the community’s high demand for sugar, which exceeds six million tons per year
The classification of Land-use/land-cover changes (LULC) was carried out to ascertain the state of the current LULC in the Lamongan Regency
The classification of LULC in Lamongan Regency using SPOT images in 2007, 2013, and 2019 demonstrated that LULC has comprised of forest, fields/moors, built-up areas, open land, sugarcane plantations, rice fields, shrubs, fishponds, and water bodies
Summary
Indonesia’s current sugar production capacity is insufficient to meet the community’s high demand for sugar, which exceeds six million tons per year. National sugar production in 2019 was only 2.23 million tons. In 2019 sugar imports in Indonesia imported 4.09 million tons, worth up to US $1.36 billion, or approximately Rp19.3 trillion. Sugar was imported from 20 countries, with Thailand importing the most (86.53%) and Australia importing the least (13.26%) (Indonesian Statistics, 2020). Sugar production is poor as a result of sugarcane production being low. Domestic sugar production peaked in the 1930s. 179 sugar factories were operational, but today, less than half of those remain operational, totaling 64 sugar factories (Marpaung et al, 2011).
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