Predicting Success on the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination

Abstract

Researchers have studied predictors of success in education programs to validate and improve admission requirements and course curricula. Programs that are in high demand such as the Interservice Physician Assistant Program (IPAP) conducted at Fort Sam Houston, Texas, must make wise use of the limited resource of education to ensure that those accepted complete the program. Purpose: This study was conducted to determine the predictors of the level of success on the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE). Method: The study examined independent variables categorized as demographics, academic performance, and clinical performance as predictors of the level of success on the PANCE. Data were analyzed using stepwise and multiple linear regression. Results: Four demographic variables were found to be significantly correlated with PANCE scores. All academic performance variables were also significant with correlation coefficients p < .01 with the PANCE score. The clinical performance variable also emerged as moderately significant in predicting PANCE scores. Stepwise regression analysis indicated that first and third trimester scores and gender were the best predictors of the level of success on PANCE scores. Full multiple regression of PANCE scores on trimesters predictors resulted in R = .79, accounting for 62% of the variance in PANCE scores. Conclusions: Final results indicated that higher scores in the first and third trimesters predict higher PANCE scores. Knowledge of predictors of success can be used to modify the program curriculum and admission prerequisites to maximize academic performance and in turn achieve higher scores on the PANCE.