Predicting Student Dropout Rates Using Supervised Machine Learning: Insights from the 2022 National Education Accessibility Survey in Somaliland

Abstract

High student dropout rates are a critical issue in Somaliland, significantly impeding educational progress and socioeconomic development. This study leveraged data from the 2022 National Education Accessibility Survey (NEAS) to predict student dropout rates using supervised machine learning techniques. Various algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), probit regression (PR), naïve Bayes (NB), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN), were employed to analyze the survey data. The analysis revealed school dropout rate of 12.67%. Key predictors of dropout included student’s grade, age, school type, household income, and type of housing. Logistic regression and probit regression models highlighted age and student’s grade as critical predictors, while naïve Bayes and random forest models underscored the significance of household income and housing type. Among the models, random forest demonstrated the highest accuracy at 95.00%, indicating its effectiveness in predicting dropout rates. The findings from this study provide valuable insights for educational policymakers and stakeholders in Somaliland. By identifying and understanding the key factors influencing dropout rates, targeted interventions can be designed to enhance student retention and improve educational outcomes. The dominant role of demographic and educational factors, particularly age and student’s grade, underscores the necessity for focused strategies to reduce dropout rates and promote inclusive education in Somaliland.