Predicting species richness and distribution ranges of centipedes at the northern edge of Europe

Abstract

In recent decades, interest in understanding species distributions and exploring processes that shape species diversity has increased, leading to the development of advanced methods for the exploitation of occurrence data for analytical and ecological purposes. Here, with the use of georeferenced centipede data, we explore the importance and contribution of bioclimatic variables and land cover, and predict distribution ranges and potential hotspots in Norway. We used a maximum entropy analysis (Maxent) to model species' distributions, aiming at exploring centres of distribution, latitudinal spans and northern range boundaries of centipedes in Norway. The performance of all Maxent models was better than random with average test area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.893 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) values above 0.593. Our results showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient of increased species richness in southern grid-cells. Mean temperatures of warmest and coldest quarters explained much of the potential distribution of species. Predictive modelling analyses revealed that south-eastern Norway and the Atlantic coast in the west (inclusive of the major fjord system of Sognefjord), are local biodiversity hotspots with regard to high predictive species co-occurrence. We conclude that our predicted northward shifts of centipedes' distributions in Norway are likely a result of post-glacial recolonization patterns, species' ecological requirements and dispersal abilities.