Predicting spatial and decadal of land use and land cover change using integrated cellular automata Markov chain model based scenarios (2019–2049) Zarriné-Rūd River Basin in Iran

Abstract

Effective land use and land cover (LULC) change assessment requires tools to measure past, current, and based on them to create a future scenario. LULC changes are unavoidable in the world, particularly in developing countries. Since LULC are too dynamic and complicated without the identification of appropriate methods and approaches the future perdition will be less accurate. Therefore, the integrated Cellular Automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model is known as a capable estimator. In this study, LULC changes in Zarriné-Rūd River Basin (ZRB) in Iran was analyzed based on different images and data extracted from satellite data in 1989 and 2019 to create the LULC scenario in 2049. The model was validated using actual and projected to 2019. The overall agreement on two extracted maps was 97.85% in 1989 and 96.55% in 2019. The more detailed analysis of validation of calibration based on the kappa showed the highest data reliability of 0.98 in 1989 and 0.95 in 2019, respectively. According to the transition matrix of probabilities, the most significant changes in the ZRB based on the past scenario (1989–2019) is in rainfed and built up land classes of LULC in 2049. Concurrently, the other classes continue to decline except irrigated agriculture and water bodies. The results obtained showed that the pasture and mountain LULC class had continued to reduce more than other classes. Furthermore, water resources and the amount of the precipitation in past and future are important to spatial and temporal expansion on LULC classes.