Predicting short-term F 10.7 $F_{10.7}$ with transport models

Abstract

A solar magnetic flux transport model has the ability to demonstrate the magnetic evolution of the Sun, thus providing a foundation for space weather forecasting. Solar activities have close relationships to the Sun’s magnetic fields. To predict the Sun’s magnetic environment more precisely, many versions of magnetic flux rope models have been developed. We utilized two models that were created by Yeates et al. (Sol. Phys. 245(1):87, 2007) (hereinafter referred to as the Y model) and Worden and Harvey (Sol. Phys. 195(2):247, 2000) (hereinafter referred to as the WH model) to predict the short-term changes of 10.7 cm radio flux (\(F_{10.7}\)) during 2003–2014. Both models performed very well in estimating \(F_{10.7}\) values. The statistical results of analyzing the correlation coefficient, mean absolute error, mean square error, relative error, frequency distribution, etc. show that the Y model is superior to the WH model. The meridional flow and diffusion process used in the WH model do not agree with the observations. Such discrepancies may influence estimates of the global flux.