Abstract
Accurately predicting the score differences in NBA basketball games is no simple task. In this research, using game-by-game box scores from 2012-2018 NBA regular seasons, we present a linear model with design matrix, estimating the team strengths using previous results and applying the model to predict score differences of NBA regular season games. The model takes in team fatigue levels and starting line-up salary weights to adjust the team strengths. The results are very close to the pointspreads, which are the market equilibria predictions before the start of the games.
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