Predicting salinity intrusion for the coastal rice cultivation areas in the Mekong Delta ​

Abstract

The Mekong Delta is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change (CC). Prolonged drought causes salinity intrusion, which has become more and more complicated and seriously affects agricultural production and residential daily life. Therefore, studies on salinity intrusion play a critical role in socio-economic development. This study applies the remote sensing techniques to predict salinity intrusion at the main estuaries across the Mekong Delta based on comparing with observed salinity data for the years 2014, 2016, and 2020, at 22 hydrology stations along the Tien River and the Hau River. The results show that salinity tends to decrease gradually, inland from the estuary; it gradually increases from January, peaking in February, March, or April, and then gradually decreases. The farthest salinity intrusion extended approximately 80 km inland, at the Ham Luong branch, and 56-61 km inland from the other branches. Overall, salinity intrusion penetrated the deepest at four main river branches in 2020. Salinity intrusion can be predicted through multiple regression models.