PREDICTING RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN SIERRA LEONE USING ARIMA MODEL

Abstract

Rice is the staple food in Sierra Leone, with the annual consumption increasing faster than the yearly production. As a result, the county is yet to be self-sufficient in rice production, resulting in a very high annual import bill. This paper aims to predict Sierra Leone's self-sufficiency in rice until 2030. The time series modeling approach (Box Jenkins' ARIMA model) was used to forecast rice production, consumption, and finally, rice self-sufficiency in Sierra Leone. The predicted results of the study showed that the self-sufficiency rate of rice will fluctuate between 63% and 65% in the forecasted period of 2021 and 2024 and will then remain stable (constant) at 63% until 2030. Therefore, as shown from the study results, Sierra Leone will continue to import about 37% of rice annually at the current production scenario until 2030. This study's findings showcased that although the country has formulated some viable policies to boost rice production, more effort is needed to ensure self-sufficiency. However, any policy to increase rice production should strive to improve small-scale rice producers in line with their agronomic practices.