Predicting Rice Pest Population Occurrence with Satellite-Derived Crop Phenology, Ground Meteorological Observation, and Machine Learning: A Case Study for the Central Plain of Thailand

Abstract

The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (BPH) is one of the most harmful insect pests in rice paddy fields, which causes considerable yield loss and consequent economic problems, particularly in the central plain of Thailand. Accurate and timely forecasting of pest population incidence would support farmers in planning effective mitigation. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF) and classic linear multiple regression (MLR) analyses were applied and compared to forecast the BPH population using weather and host-plant phenology factors during the crop dry season from 2006 to 2016 in the central plain of Thailand. Data from satellite earth observation was used to monitor crop phenology factors affecting BPH population density. An ANN model with integrated ground-based meteorological variables and satellite-derived host plant variables was more accurate for short-term forecasting of the peak abundance of BPH when compared with RF and MLR, according to a reasonably validating dataset (RMSE of natural log-transformed (ln) BPH light trap catches = 1.686, 1.737, and 2.015, respectively). This finding indicates that the utilization of ground meteorological observations, satellite-derived NDVI time series, and ANN have the potential to predict BPH population density in support of integrated pest management programs. We expect the results from this study can be applied in conjunction with the satellite-based rice monitoring system developed by the Geo-Informatic and Space Technology Development Agency of Thailand (GISTDA; http://rice.gistda.or.th) to support an effective pest early warning system.