Predicting Retention Duration From Organizational Commitment Profile Transitions

Abstract

A unique survey archive of U.S. Army officers’ affective commitment and continuance commitment over a 4-year time period presents an opportunity to test multiple research questions about the extent to which organizational commitment profiles change and their relationship with the occurrence and timing of turnover. These results begin to reconcile competing theories about the stability of commitment and complement theories of organizational attachment, withdrawal, and turnover. First, multigroup latent profile analyses revealed the structure of commitment profiles was relatively consistent across five samples from the same organization. Second, latent transition analysis revealed more within-sample and within-person temporal stability of commitment profiles over a 4-year time period than less stability. Third, value-based profiles assessed at one time period were associated with lower turnover rates and higher organizational tenure compared to weak commitment profiles. Likewise, when predicting the timing of turnover with survival analysis, value-based profiles had a lower turnover hazard and higher survival probabilities over time relative to weak commitment profiles. Additionally, employees who transitioned from a value-based profile to a weak commitment profile had a higher turnover hazard and lower survival probabilities compared to employees who moved in the opposite direction. These findings have implications for turnover theories, as well as applied implications for the timing of interventions designed to enhance organizational commitment and reduce turnover.