Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China.

Jiansong Zhou,Chen Chen,Katrina Witt,Xia Cao,Xiaoping Wang,Xiang Yang Zhang

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0169251

Abstract

BackgroundJuvenile violent offending is a serious worldwide public health issue.ObjectiveThe study examined whether the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) can be used to predict violent reoffending in Chinese male juvenile offenders, and to determine which risk/protective domains (items) are associated with violent recidivism.MethodsA total of 246 male juvenile offenders were recruited. SAVRY domains were scored by trained raters based on file review and interviews with participants and their legal guardians. Information on further arrests, charges, or convictions for violent offences were collected from police records over a five year follow-up.ResultsOver the course of the five year follow-up periods, 63 (25.6%) juvenile offenders were re-arrested for a further violent reoffence. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses showed Areas Under the Curve (AUCs) ranging from 0.60 to 0.68 for the SAVRY total, risk and protective score domains. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that 7 of the 30 SAVRY items were significantly associated with reoffending; explaining 36.2% of the variance. Backward stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed the independently predictive items were items 2 (‘history of non-violent offending’), 17 (‘negative attitudes’), 18 (‘risk-taking/impulsivity’), and 20 (‘anger management problems’). Together these four items explained 25.0% of the variance in reoffending.ConclusionsThe results suggested that the SAVRY can be meaningfully used to inform the development and evaluation of effective violence risk assessment and management approaches for male juvenile offenders detained in a Youth Detention Center in Hunan province, China.

Highlights

Violence is currently one of the top 20 causes of disability life-adjusted years lost worldwide [1]; costing the United States economy alone $37 billion in health care and productivity costs each year [2]
Over the course of the five year follow-up periods, 63 (25.6%) juvenile offenders were rearrested for a further violent reoffence
The results suggested that the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) can be meaningfully used to inform the development and evaluation of effective violence risk assessment and management approaches for male juvenile offenders detained in a Youth Detention Center in Hunan province, China

Summary

Introduction

Violence is currently one of the top 20 causes of disability life-adjusted years lost worldwide [1]; costing the United States economy alone $37 billion in health care and productivity costs each year [2]. Rates of violent and sexual recidivism have declined significantly in juvenile offending populations over recent years in a number of jurisdictions [3]. In the United States, for example, juvenile arrest rates for violent offences have declined by as much as 55.0% between 1994 and 2014 [4] and, for sexually violent offences, by as much as 73.0% over this same time period [3]. There is some data to suggest youth offending has increasingly shifted towards more seriously violent offences [6], including murder, armed robbery, rape, and assault [7]. According to data from the China Statistical Yearbook, around 20,000 juvenile offenders have been detained in Youth Detention Centers (YDCs) each year from 2000 for predominately violent offences [8]. Juvenile violent offending is a serious worldwide public health issue

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Results

Conclusion