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Abstract
Aims/hypothesisThe aim of this study was to provide data from a contemporary population-representative cohort on rates and predictors of renal decline in type 1 diabetes.MethodsWe used data from a cohort of 5777 people with type 1 diabetes aged 16 and older, diagnosed before the age of 50, and representative of the adult population with type 1 diabetes in Scotland (Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource; SDRNT1BIO). We measured serum creatinine and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) at recruitment and linked the data to the national electronic healthcare records.ResultsMedian age was 44.1 years and diabetes duration 20.9 years. The prevalence of CKD stages G1, G2, G3 and G4 and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was 64.0%, 29.3%, 5.4%, 0.6%, 0.7%, respectively. Micro/macroalbuminuria prevalence was 8.6% and 3.0%, respectively. The incidence rate of ESRD was 2.5 (95% CI 1.9, 3.2) per 1000 person-years. The majority (59%) of those with chronic kidney disease stages G3–G5 did not have albuminuria on the day of recruitment or previously. Over 11.6 years of observation, the median annual decline in eGFR was modest at −1.3 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2 year−1 (interquartile range [IQR]: −2.2, −0.4). However, 14% experienced a more significant loss of at least 3 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2. These decliners had more cardiovascular disease (OR 1.9, p = 5 × 10−5) and retinopathy (OR 1.3 p = 0.02). Adding HbA1c, prior cardiovascular disease, recent mean eGFR and prior trajectory of eGFR to a model with age, sex, diabetes duration, current eGFR and ACR maximised the prediction of final eGFR (r2 increment from 0.698 to 0.745, p < 10−16). Attempting to model nonlinearity in eGFR decline or to detect latent classes of decliners did not improve prediction.ConclusionsThese data show much lower levels of kidney disease than historical estimates. However, early identification of those destined to experience significant decline in eGFR remains challenging.
Highlights
The purpose of this study was to describe the levels and predictors of eGFR decline in a large (N = 5777) contemporary population-representative cohort with type 1 diabetes
Of the 6127 people recruited in the SDRNT1BIO cohort, we first restricted the study to the 5777 individuals with age of onset below 50 years and an eGFR reading at recruitment
We used this subset to present the prevalence of albuminuria and eGFR stages
Summary
Several analyses suggest that there have been substantial falls in ESRD rates in recent decades [2,3,4] but some cohort studies found no decline in the earlier stages of disease [5]. There are more than twofold variations in estimates of incidence rates of ESRD from registries and cohort studies in recent publications [2, 4, 6,7,8]. These variations may in part reflect differences in population coverage, sampling criteria and calendar time period covered. Given the substantial advances in diabetes care over the past decades, more data on the current prevalence of renal disease and current rates of decline in eGFR in type 1 diabetes are needed
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